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Gate Street Partners, Inc.
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From a recent column in The Conference Board Review............ In The World Is Flat, that book I was trying to finish some time ago in Aruba, Tom Friedman related a conversation with philanthropist Bill Gates: “Thirty years ago, he said if you had a chance between being born a genius on the outskirts of Bombay or Shanghai or being born an average person in Poughkeepsie, you would take Poughkeepsie, because your chances of thriving and living a decent life there, even with average talent, were much greater. But as the world has gone flat, Gates said, and so many people can plug and play from anywhere, natural talent has started to trump geography. “Now,” he said, “I would rather be a genius born in China than an average guy born in Poughkeepsie.” I am an average guy born in Poughkeepsie (no kidding), and by the time you are reading this, I will be in China, not too far from Shanghai, with smart young people born in China. Given the numbers, I may encounter a genius or two. To make my adventure happen I will be depending entirely on technology and all the other things that let talent finally trump geography. Times have changed. When I was a kid, during the Eisenhower administration, there was a big dust-up between China and China, the one recognized by the United States at the time and the one that occupied all of China except for some off-shore islands and Taiwan. Among the islands were Quemoy and Matsu almost in the harbor of Xiamen, a city of a million and a half people on the Chinese coast. The US Joint Chiefs of Staff wanted to nuke the real China to defend the other China’s claim to the islands, but cooler heads prevailed. Nevertheless, both sides resorted to conventional artillery bombardment while the US 7th Fleet sailed around suggesting US intervention if things got out-of-hand. Thankfully, the whole drama died down and now Taiwan and China have a practical, if awkward relationship. It’s a good thing because I will be in Xiamen for a spell and the residuals from nuclear blasts can be persistent. It’s also a good thing for other reasons. In preparation for my trip, I figured I’d futz around with my laptop, an IBM/Lenovo Thinkpad and add more memory. I ordered the little memory card on Lenovo’s website, paid electronically, received confirmation and an order number and then watched the progress of my order on the UPS website as the memory transited from Shenzhen, China to Guangzhou, China, to Anchorage, Alaska, on to Louisville, Kentucky and to Richmond and Fishersville in Virginia and finally to me. When I opened the box, the seal on the small package holding the memory had a bunch of bar codes and the note “Made in Taiwan.” My memory was manufactured on July 10th, 2007, ordered on August 9th, shipped on August 13th from China and got to me on the 20th. For five days, the memory was held up for paperwork or something between the customs broker and US Customs – a ridge or two on an otherwise flat earth. Turns out I needed the cooperation of Taiwan and China and a lot of other places to make things work. I also had a couple of computer anomalies I figured it would be better to fix now rather than later and got on to a chat session (like a regular chat room, but dedicated to a business) with technicians from Symantec, the virus protection people I was getting funny error messages from them even though my license was current. This was not a happy experience and my sessions kept getting “hung” which means everything on my laptop stopped working, and I had to reestablish the chat session and repeat all my information again, which included preliminary ”who are you” fields on a template and introductory “why am I here” information for the technician when he or she came on line. They all, by the way, had names you were unlikely to see on Mayflower passenger lists. Anyway, I finally quit trying with chat and called them, despite a warning that phone calls were fee-based and would cost me money. I reached a guy in Mumbai, which used to be called Bombay, named by the Portuguese who later leased and lost it to the British. It was two in the morning, his time, but he was instantly linked to colleagues in the US and had all my licensing information and chat records. After a few minutes, we figured we had a complicated problem so he took over at my laptop keyboard and rummaged around in my machine looking at and fixing things. After a few minutes, all was right, no charge, we said our goodbyes and I moved on to my next chore. Now he was in Mumbai and I was in Virginia, so getting to my keyboard was all virtual – part of this flat world business. I downloaded a program at his request from a website which then gave him remote access to my machine like the PC remote software that lets you get to your computer when you are on the road and your computer is not. It can let anyone else get to your computer too if you aren’t careful, so watch out when you use one of these. The last issue I had with my laptop was an odd feature where every time I hit the Fn key, the one you hold down when you need to use some function key on the keyboard, meaning to or not, my machine died. Blue Screen Death they call it as opposed to Black Screen Death. If your screen goes blue with some arcane message, it usually implies that there is some software or programming problem. If it goes to black with or without an error message, that usually means a hardware problem. No diagnostics available to me or downloadable updates resolved the problem. My machine is still on warrantee, so I called Lenovo which got me speaking to a former IBMer, now a contractor in Atlanta working for some servicing arrangement between IBM and Lenovo, the Chinese company. I could have sent my machine to them in a box they’d have Fedex’d to me and have it fixed, but I was running out of time. So I took the machine to a Lenovo-authorized guy who turned out to have retired and sold his business to another guy – less the Lenovo authorized part of it which they shut down and which IBM/Lenovo in Atlanta didn’t know. Another bump in the flat world. Nor did they have the area code change for telephone numbers in Charlottesville, Virginia. I got lucky with Google and stumbled into the people the guy was selling his business too. Gene Bumgartner, the fellow who bought the business, but not the Lenovo authorized warrantee support part was very sharp. Between me, he and IBM/Lenovo in Atlanta, after swapping out the keyboard and the system board –all sent from somewhere, overnight; we discovered that an undocumented upgrade to “firmware” (which is actually computer programming that the hardware people use, not the “software” as we usually understand it and the kind of stuff that comes from places like Microsoft), fixed the problem and I picked up my machine in time to leave for Xiamen where I should be now. There was no reason why the fix had to be physically hands-on – another ridge in the landscape. For part of my time in China, I will be teaching young Chinese people. No, I am not teaching English as a second language. It’s business policy, which in a US school is usually called the capstone course in business. And I’m teaching it in English – thank God, though I expect with immersion and language-learning software I ought to be picking up some Mandarin pretty quick. China knows of the flat world. Think of how many US college business majors would take their capstone course in Mandarin……….. I fully expect to learn much more than I will be teaching. Exploiting flatness, I found the opportunity on the web, never laid eyes on any of the people I worked with through the process from inception to being met at the airport in Xiamen with the exception of getting my Visa which still takes a personal trip to a Chinese Embassy or Consulate – another flat world ridge. Everything else was by e-mail, scanned documents or fax and a single phone call to a program rep in the US. And I am totally dependent on a flat world to maintain my business and other interests here (or by the time you reads this, “there”) from there (or here). There is no Wall Street Journal every day except for online; taxes are a little tricky as tax authorities – local and otherwise – steer away from e-mail and I can’t “see” tax bills online. Snail or paper mail forwarding doesn’t work; suspending my US cell-phone service for the duration (so I can keep my number and not pay $1.49 a minute in China) was a little tricky. I sold my car on Ebay to a guy in Queens rather than take a year’s depreciation; he wired the money, I Fedex’d the title and bill-of-sale and he showed up with New York plates. If I could get a remote lawn mover, leaf-raker, thermostat changer and air handler filter changer, which in a few years there will probably be, I wouldn’t need the services of kind neighbors, relatives and friends who are going to hold down my fort while I am away. I’m pretty sure everything else is covered. I have not seen the internet connections where I am going, I have not visited any banks where I am going, I have not met the cell phone people from whom I wilI be getting service and a phone and have not seen the classrooms where I will be teaching, nor have I seen where I will be living. I am assuming that the features of the flat world are going to be there and built my plan on that basis. You can too. If you don’t, in fact, you may be standing there in someone else’s dust. And I’m just an average guy from Poughkeepsie.
(Another of our pieces from Across the Board) So you want to be a consultant? I once got an e-mail from a fellow who wanted to be a CIO. CIO’s are the people with short career spans, who get called when anything with computers goes awry. And they’re the ones who spend tons of money redoing what their predecessors were finishing up before moving to greener pastures when their agenda interfered with the business. I was a CIO at the time. I recall saying lots about the practical realities of survival, doing well and making a contribution none of which had much to do with acronyms or mnemonics. I get notes like that often these days. People do desperate things in search of jobs. This past week, I got an e-mail from a young woman wanting to “break into” consulting where “business development coalesces with management consulting.” She’s been out of school just a couple of years. Given the number of people looking for work these days, my reply might be helpful. Lots of people who figure finding regular work is hopeless, decide to be consultants. Here’s my reply to Elizabeth, e-mail of course: Hi Elizabeth,
You asked me what I do and how you might get started. To do this kind of stuff, you need experience and a client who either thinks you know enough or who knows you well enough to think you might be helpful. This is especially true if what you bring to the table is you rather than a bunch of new MBA’s or others steeped only in a methodology. Methodologies are fine, but they’re sort of like shoes. Forcing your business into one that looks good, but doesn’t really fit can hurt you.
Management consulting is not "business development."
Business development means finding customers to pay money for what somebody is
selling. I don't do that. Marketing consultants do that . So do famous people
who can make introductions and leave the impression that following up will keep
you in their good graces. I never liked marketing. Having the same car dealer
feature the donut spare tire the year after he disparaged it didn’t improve
my opinion.
Credibility comes from being old, having a beard,
inventing a new name for an idea everybody knows but forgot; being published,
speaking at events, wrapping yourself in academic trappings, or by saying
thoughtful things that nobody else ever heard of and may not quite understand.
Myths and legends help too. Try to get some good myths or legends going.
Before you go start being a consultant, fix your budget
and your bank account. Not getting a regular check takes some adjusting to.
Getting really big checks all at once is like getting a bonus. It can be nice,
because you can buy things without having to save up. But you’ve got to figure
for taxes and you’ve got to figure that the next check may be a while. You
don’t want a lot of fixed expenses. Pay cash. *******************************
A favorite column from Across the Board©.......... Thinking in Truck© My grandfather was an iceman. Unlike that fellow found frozen in an Alpine glacier, he was a real ice man and delivered blocks of ice to homes in his neighborhood in times when people used real ice boxes and antique dealers sold other things as conversation pieces. I have his ice tongs, big black iron tweezers that he’d use to pick up and carry twelve-inch cubes from his wagon to somebody’s house. For a number of years he used a wagon, pulled by a horse. Later he bought a truck. One day when the truck’s brake let loose and the truck went rolling down a hill, my grandfather ran after it, reportedly shouting "Whoa there, whoa girl!" My grandfather reacted instinctively to what he knew: his horse. To him, the truck was just another way to do the job the horse and wagon had done. Translating from what he knew took conscious thought – and time. Somebody who grew up with a truck would have never shouted "Whoa!" and probably would have reacted quickly in a way that worked better for trucks than for horses – to their lasting advantage. But if you grow up with horses and learn to depend on them, it’s hard to switch metaphors even if trucks become the replacement. You may be aware that some of the earliest traffic laws for motor vehicles were based on horse and carriage practices. Thinking in truck and not horse took a while. Transitions in my grandfather’s day were more gradual than they are today. New ideas get into the mainstream very quickly now. Genetic engineering, cell phones, even "You’ve Got Mail." But it’s harder to stay attuned to the mainstream and pick the right set of underlying assumptions about the world. It changes so quickly. I hadn’t realized, quite frankly, how fast prices had dropped for large flat panel displays (under $500 now for one with the same screen size as a most computer CRTs). I hate giving up so much space to a computer monitor and now that the flat panels are closing the price gap, I expect they’ll take over. CRT’s are too big and clumsy and the minute the price gets even close, people will flock to flat panels and volume will drop the price even further obliterating the CRT entirely – even for televisions. Good riddance. I was also surprised by how far the price had dropped for reasonably powerful PCs (less than $500 for a 300 MHz Pentium). If you are in forecasting, running around trying to figure out household penetration for PCs, just figure every body will have one and be done with it. It’s going to be like a telephone or a TV. Five hundred bucks and dropping. Forget about it. The numbers for Internet shopping look pretty amazing too. The popularity of shopping with a PC on the Net rather than in malls, where you can’t find your car, took off this past Christmas season. I used the Net myself for much of my gift giving. Who needs the aggravation of going out there and either finding the store is out-of-stock, it won’t fit in your trunk or your arms break after carrying stuff all afternoon. The combination of online buying and FedEx pushed the deadline almost to Christmas Eve. I’m not sure that’s good for tradition and Christmas spirit, but it certainly helped me. Any suspicion that commerce couldn’t or shouldn’t or wouldn’t be conducted over the Net ought to be history now and we can move on with the assumption fixed in our minds that it will be. I wonder if it will make a difference for some of us. What we took as assumptions for conventional business cases has changed. Suppose we stipulated that everybody in the world with any disposable income whatsoever has a PC, uses the Internet, has e-mail and constant mobile communication to anywhere – all for cheap. Suppose FedEx (or equivalent) can reach them all, and they only buy the best quality at the lowest price in the easiest way. And suppose everyone like that, by definition, has no geographic limitations for sourcing goods and services. Suppose the Internet has nearly instantaneous performance and transaction security as good as an in-person credit card or check. Now suppose that the environment described above is the preferred way to transact business rather than an alternative to other ways. If all that were true, what would your business do? I think many businesses would respond by conducting studies and business cases to prove it won’t happen. They’ll set about building arguments to justify that what they do today makes sense and how any response to the world I’ve described will be an adjunct to their business and not their mainstream. Few will turn their business on its head like Microsoft did a year or so ago when Bill Gates "got it" and decided the Internet was the future. And of course Amazon.com wouldn’t respond conservatively because they’ve built a business with exactly the set of assumptions described. Amazon.com was designed by individuals without a traditional metaphor in mind. They’d never used a horse, so they always thought in "truck." Getting new assumptions fixed in our minds and acting on them is hard unless you can get away with the ones you learned as you grew up. If you have to make horse-truck translations it becomes even harder to think in a new set of assumptions, particularly if there is no equivalent. That’s why it’s easier to learn a standard first and then drive an automatic. Given the rate of change in how we use technology to do impossible things (and I mean impossible too), people unburdened by knowing what is impossible have an advantage over those of us making translations. They "just do it," to borrow Nike’s phrase and therefore obtain a substantial advantage. Chances are you still think horse. Go hire people who think truck and listen to them. You can ignore their music. All over the place people, particularly people for whom social security looks like a far off mirage (which it probably will be when their time comes), are building their worlds on what to some are novel assumptions, but what to them is perfectly normal, every day reality. I saw the back of a kid’s cereal box the other day and it promoted a Web Site and all the cool games for kids to play there. "Adult" cereal boxes don’t do that. We may not know what normal is any more. Kiko Wu ( a person’s name, not a technical term), is a logical descendant of Gypsie Rose Lee, the ecdysiast. She lives in a world where Gypsie Rose Lee’s impossible is commonplace. Kiko works at one of the Gentleman’s Clubs in New York where the women entertain businessmen by stepping out of evening gowns in front of them and charging for it. There is no band and no bad stand-up comics. These young women have onsite hairdressers, dressing rooms and a locker in quite pleasant surroundings. Many won’t have student loans to repay, though they will have college degrees. They pay a substantial fee to work as independent contractors in these places and separate businessmen from obscene amounts of money for the privilege of gawking at nubile nymphs many of whom are more entrepreneurial and Internet savvy than they are. Kiko Wu is a smart businesswoman who built her own Web Site with a program called Page Mill, with Java applets, animation, links to friends, e-mail……the whole shootin’ match. She has advertisers paying for it, promotes herself and her place of work and writes an advice column for other young women who want to make lots of money for providing the same views that are free on most beaches in the European Union. Ms. Wu is twenty-three. The Internet, instant e-mail all over the world and easy do-it-yourself tools, with a very modest investment, let her do things that are "impossible." For her and her generation, these things are a "given" in their lifetimes. Kendra Williams is a Navy fighter pilot, a logical descendent of Amelia Earhart with better navigation and instant communication. According to USA Today, she’s twenty-six years old, flies F/A-18 airplanes and dropped exploding things on Iraq in Wag the Dog, the real one, not the movie. Just before Christmas, after finishing work for the day, she settled into her berth on the U.S.S. Enterprise (the real one, not Spock’s), and e-mailed her family about how she spent her day. Think about that. Lt. Williams probably never heard of V-mail, the tissue thin paper letters of World War II, wouldn’t know a "wire" if she saw one and thinks Western Union is something that led to the EURO. Instant, worldwide communications and staying in touch anywhere is perfectly normal for Lt. Williams. It’s not novel or mysterious or even particularly exciting. That’s just the way it is. Kiko Wu and Lt. Williams made very different career choices, but they have one thing in common. They can’t help but to think in contemporary technology and exploit it without even realizing how different their experience is from that of just a few years ago. They probably can’t recall life before personal computers or before electronic mail, laptops or cell phones, or two hundred channel TVs. And remember, this stuff is in its infancy and growing fast. For these folks, it’s the way, not a way. Suppose their facility with this stuff and their reality represents the world over the next ten years? What are you going to do? Well, it does. Make that your assumption and build on it. If you’d like to shout "Whoa!" It’s too late. [©2004 Use or reproduction prohibited without written permission.]
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